From Rivalry to Cooperation: The New Diplomacy Shaping India–Pakistan Relations

The story of South Asia cannot be told without addressing the complicated, turbulent, and often tragic relationship between India and Pakistan. Born from the partition of 1947, the two nations have fought multiple wars, endured decades of hostility, and remain locked in a bitter rivalry that casts a long shadow over the region. Yet beneath this troubled surface lies a question that resurfaces every generation: Can India and Pakistan move from rivalry to cooperation?

A Relationship Defined by Conflict

The India–Pakistan conflict is one of the most enduring rivalries of the modern era. It is rooted in:

• The Partition of 1947, which displaced millions and sowed the seeds of mistrust.

• Territorial disputes over Kashmir, which sparked wars in 1947–48, 1965, and 1999 (Kargil).

• The 1971 war, which led to the independence of Bangladesh...

• Decades of cross-border militancy, insurgencies, and terrorism that have hardened public perceptions.

Even during peacetime, the relationship is marked by suspicion. Diplomatic talks often collapse, trade is frequently disrupted, and cultural exchanges remain hostage to political winds.

Why Cooperation Still Matters

Despite this history, cooperation between India and Pakistan remains not only desirable but necessary.

1. Regional Stability

   • The India–Pakistan conflict is the single greatest obstacle to South Asian integration. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) has been largely paralyzed due to their rivalry. Peace between the two would unlock regional trade and connectivity.

   
   

2. Economic Gains

   • Trade between India and Pakistan once exceeded $2.7 billion annually but has since collapsed to a trickle after 2019. Normalizing trade could benefit both economies: India would gain access to a large consumer market, while Pakistan could reduce trade deficits by importing cheaper goods from across the border.

   
   

3. Climate and Water Security

   • Both countries share the Indus River system, vital to agriculture and livelihoods. Climate change threatens this system, making cooperation on water management critical. The Indus Waters Treaty (1960) remains one of the rare successful examples of enduring cooperation, even during wartime.

   
   

4. Global Image

   • Both nations aspire to global leadership roles—India as a rising economic and strategic power, and Pakistan as a bridge in the Muslim world and a key player in counterterrorism. Continued rivalry damages their international standing.

Signs of a New Diplomacy

While breakthroughs have been rare, there have been moments when diplomacy shifted the trajectory, even briefly.

• The Lahore Declaration (1999): Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif pledged to work toward peace. Though derailed by the Kargil War, it showed the possibility of political courage.

• Ceasefire on the Line of Control (2003): Brought relative calm and was renewed in 2021, offering hope for de-escalation.

• Backchannel Diplomacy: Reports suggest that quiet negotiations—sometimes involving third parties like the UAE—have kept lines of communication open even when official channels froze.

• People-to-People Diplomacy: Civil society, sports, music, and student exchanges have often kept the idea of peace alive, despite official hostility.

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These glimpses remind us that while mistrust runs deep, the door to cooperation is never fully shut.

Obstacles to Reconciliation

Yet, moving from rivalry to cooperation remains an uphill struggle.

1. Kashmir Dispute

   • Kashmir remains the most sensitive and unresolved issue. India’s 2019 decision to revoke Article 370, ending Jammu & Kashmir’s special status, further strained relations. For Pakistan, this remains a non-negotiable point of contention.

   
   

2. Terrorism and Security

   • India accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups that operate across the border, while Pakistan denies this and points to India’s alleged role in destabilizing regions like Balochistan. Mutual accusations prevent sustained dialogue.

   
   

3. Domestic Politics

   • In both countries, political leaders often find it easier to rally support through nationalist rhetoric than through compromise. Peace initiatives are vulnerable to domestic backlash.

   
   

4. External Geopolitics

   • China’s close ties with Pakistan and India’s growing alignment with the U.S. and Western partners create strategic rivalries that spill into bilateral relations. The India–China border conflict also complicates any thaw.

   
   

The Role of Track II Diplomacy

Given the fragility of official diplomacy, Track II initiatives—involving academics, journalists, retired officials, and civil society—have become vital. These informal dialogues explore areas of cooperation such as:

• Trade and investment opportunities.

• Climate adaptation strategies.

• Shared cultural and historical preservation.

• Academic and youth exchanges.

Though these cannot replace government-to-government talks, they create constituencies for peace and build trust at the grassroots level.

Areas of Possible Cooperation

If political will emerges, India and Pakistan have clear areas where cooperation could be mutually beneficial:

1. Trade Normalization

   • Restoring trade routes, reducing tariffs, and creating joint industrial zones near the border could generate jobs and lower costs of goods.

   
   

2. Energy Sharing

   • Cross-border electricity trade or joint investments in renewable energy could address chronic power shortages.

   
   

3. Health and Humanitarian Diplomacy

   • Joint action against pandemics, vaccination drives, and disaster relief cooperation could save lives and improve public perceptions.

   
   

4. Tourism and Cultural Exchange

   • Religious tourism, such as visits to Sikh shrines in Pakistan and Sufi sites in India, could expand. Sporting and cultural exchanges could rebuild people-to-people bonds.

   
   

Looking Ahead: The Possibility of a Reset

Can India and Pakistan move toward cooperation? History urges caution, but shifts in regional and global politics may create opportunities. The rise of economic nationalism, climate urgency, and great-power rivalries may ironically push both nations to recognize that hostility is unsustainable.

For India, stability with Pakistan would allow greater focus on its global aspirations and its rivalry with China. For Pakistan, improving ties with India could ease economic challenges and reduce dependence on external powers.

Most importantly, ordinary citizens in both countries express fatigue with conflict. Polls and civil society voices consistently show a desire for peace, connectivity, and prosperity.

Conclusion: From Enmity to Opportunity

The India–Pakistan story has been written in conflict for more than seven decades. Yet it does not have to remain so. While political obstacles remain formidable, diplomacy—both formal and informal—offers a roadmap to move from rivalry to cooperation.

A renewed effort at dialogue, however fragile, could open pathways for trade, climate cooperation, and cultural exchange. Such steps may not solve Kashmir or erase decades of mistrust, but they could gradually transform the relationship into one where competition coexists with cooperation.

The future of South Asia depends on this shift. For as long as India and Pakistan remain at odds, regional unity will remain a dream deferred. But if they can embrace a new diplomacy, they may not only change their own futures but also unlock prosperity and stability for nearly two billion people across South Asia.